U.S. Stock Market Continues to Hold On to Its Gains: April 25, 2016

The U.S. stock market shown no real hint of weakness since it blasted off its 11 February bottom. It has been led by energy and commodity stocks and with those commodities still exhibiting signs of upward mobility it is no wonder that the U.S. stock market has held on to its gains and in some cases added to them.   I have been waiting for a temporary pullback as is normal after a large run but again the market has not shown any signs of real weakness. This is probably attributable to the fact that this run up in the U.S. market is being fueled by the energy and commodity complexes which typically trend better than stock markets (when stock markets are not being led by their commodity sectors). So whether we have a normal type of pullback is becoming more questionable as the U.S. stock market continues to hold on to its gains.   On the other hand, I would not be surprised to see a temporary pullback sometime soon, generated by bigger forces in the market, to throw the general market off balance. Then you would start hearing the “Sell in May and Go Away” claptrap to try to wrong foot as many market players as possible. I think this uptrend has more room to run, but again I think it needs to take a breather first.

Many more earnings reports are due out this week with technology shares starting to take front stage this week. This latest bull run has been led by energy and commodities with the tech sector taking a back seat and lagging. I would expect that to continue. Two of the previously vaunted FANG stocks, Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOG) i.e. Google have already taken hits to their stock prices after their earnings announcements this quarter. Apple (AAPL) is up this week and it is expected to announce a decline in earnings and revenue. This bull market has been going on for 7+ years and the global economies are seriously slowing if not declining with many regions already in bad shape. The major money center banks have reported with all registering very steep declines in revenue and earnings for this quarter. So economically, there is little reason to think the already lagging tech sector is going to announce robust revenues and earnings from their latest quarters.

There are limits to what central banks can do even though they have printed enough money, manipulated interest rates to historically low levels, and financially engineered mechanisms to extend this bull market to a historically long duration. The central banks are reaching the end of their ropes where their financial engineering machinations are failing to have the intended consequences that were hoped for. Hope is the key word now as central banks and their big bank/government cronies are doing the same old tried and true things to no great effect and at this point hoping they will keep working. But at best they are just extending this rigged, corrupt, and criminal game for a little while longer as even the favored enterprises are now showing signs of failure.

Gold and especially silver had big gains on Tuesday with gold losing those gains by the end of the week. Silver held on to much of those gains but without gold, which has been the leader, holding on to its gain, there is not a lot of reason for optimism going forward, particularly considering the large run-up that gold has already experienced. Gold has been moving in a sideways pattern for several weeks and looks ready to roll over and start back down soon. As I have been saying, I would expect gold to go below $1000 on its next trip down. But the explosive move up for gold in 2016 demonstrates that there is considerable demand in the gold market despite being suppressed by the paper contracts on COMEX and the LBMA. We probably have a few more months of the Fed and its central bank cohorts juggling antics that will allow them to keep enough balls in the air to give the impression to many of the sleep walking public that they still have things under control. Despite central banks best efforts you can expect to see more and more signs of serious financial and civil chaos on the horizon. In the U.S., you will most likely see increasing inflation that will become noticeable to the public as they are able to buy less for the same amount of money. This will amplify the growing dissatisfaction of an already unhappy, disenfranchised American public toward their government.

I think oil and natural gas are due for a slight pause if not pullback in here. Some of the U.S. stock indices are near key levels in this area. The S&P 500 is near its all-time high and the Nasdaq Composite is near the 5000 level. I would not be surprised to see these levels temporarily breeched and then have the market pullback for 2-3 weeks in May before then continuing up.

The Old Order is Self-Destructing: April 23, 2016

Note: I am writing this as more of a stream of consciousness rather than trying to provide a closely formulated essay as is apparent from my very loose and somewhat disjointed grammatical structure. There is a lot of information here and many of the topics touched on could be a long essay or paper in its own right. It is intended to highlight and bring awareness to the large issues allowing anyone so inclined to further investigate selected topics on their own.

 

Serious cracks in the Old Order, world-wide fascist regimes can be seen everywhere. The power elite and the monied elite, who long ago aligned themselves with each other and built up a system over the past 200 hundred years or so, at least in its latest variation of an old theme, to serve themselves is visibly falling apart. Most currencies have been greatly devalued over the last few years and the U.S. dollar, which is still the kingpin of these paper-based financial systems, is beginning to take its turn in losing value.   It is still early in the devaluing of the U.S. dollar which makes it easy for the U.S. government and its mainstream media shills to keeping spewing nonsense about the economy is recovering and everything is fine. But as the economy keeps failing more and more people, it becomes much harder for the public to believe this system is working for them. Especially, when they see how grossly the income is distributed, how the major Wall Street banks were bailed out in 2008 but they were not in any respect, how more and more people are having to become bartenders and waitresses (ers) and take two or more jobs to make ends meet along with food stamps. People can see the unemployment rate is much higher than 5.9% or so. Then when you add the underemployed to that group, you reach a much higher number that only the most economically isolated or obtuse individual can ignore as reality.  These parasitic regimes have eaten all the living tissue off of the bones and only a skeleton now remains. More and more people see that not only is this economic system failing them but that their governments do not represent or respond to their interests. The focus of these corrupt, criminal governments is to keep their crooked, rigged system (it is basically the same system used everywhere with slightly different variations such as low taxes in some places) going on as long as they can no matter what the consequences to the citizens or their countries. This means the governments will protect their partners in crime, the major banks at all costs along with their collaborative, major multi-national corporations and industries such as the military/security-industrial complexes, pharmaceutical-complex, key agri-businesses, and others. The quality of life deteriorates along with the economic circumstances of the public and governments are not responding in a way that reflects the interests of its citizens, particularly exacerbating these already trying times. Inflation has increased along with the declining economic situation within each region amplifying the increasingly dismal prospects. Inflation is starting to rise in the U.S. and will be getting much worse in the not too distant future.  The public’s rising displeasure with the state of current conditions and the negative outlook for the future direction of each region is exhibited in the rise of political parties and candidates around the globe that want serious changes from the way the status quo have been conducting the affairs of government and business.

Sidebar:

When you build and design a system that is rigged to favor the relatively few then it has to come at the expense of someone else or another group that is excluded from the vast majority of benefits that are funneled to the favored group. To get away with such a scheme, you have to use a lot of subterfuge, deceit and deception, propaganda, lies, and psychological conditioning of the public. But even that is not enough to make such an evil, devious, and unjust system work for long. You need to appeal to the public’s economic interest as that is required for one’s basic survival. Notice that I just intermixed a group reference (public) with an individual reference (one’s). This is also part of the scheme as it is much easier to control and manipulate a group of a 100 people conditioned to “think” in the same way than it is to control 100 individuals trained to think logically and question things. So through your psychological conditioning and indoctrination it is important to get people (that have been purposely trained, not educated) to think in terms of government, society, parties, countries, or the public to favor the system that has been provided to you by the elites, instead of as individuals each with the same basic rights and freedoms. To appeal to the public’s economic interests, they had to come up with a way to relatively easily buy off the people with little expense to themselves. What better way to do this than to print money out of thin air or rather to use paper as money. Then you also give yourself the monopoly of being the only ones allowed to create the money out of paper. This way you can give some of the paper money to public to buy their loyalty with little pain to yourself or your cronies. You also create an independent source of money that allows those in charge to do about anything they want without being dependent on the public, who the system is designed to take advantage of and oppress to a large degree. You also get to control what the paper money is used for, so of course, most of it will go to increasing your power and profit, again at the expense of the public. How do you increase your power? Well, you build and control the “education” system, you control mainstream media and the message it relays to the public, you make the public dependent on the system via jobs, welfare benefits, purposely undermining and destroying their lives through covert means, etc. There are also a lot of profit opportunities in all this if you do not have any scruples, reasonable thoughts, and morals to interfere with the benefits of being part of such a system. Also, again the elites know that people are easily swayed by the prospects of money especially if it is cloaked in some type of patriotic, common good kind of propaganda. You also get to control who gets the big money and who gets the money first, which is a distinct advantage in this system that makes a habit out of devaluing money. This system is purposely eliminating the middle class to a large degree as those who rule do not want independent, self-sufficient people who may develop businesses that could become a competitive threat to the status quo. Also, by creating money out of debt allows those who rule us to enslave more people as debt is the currency of slaves forcing us to pretty much do their bidding in order to pay off our debts in perpetuity.

Gold Price Manipulation: April 20, 2016

Many are getting excited about Deutsche Bank coming clean concerning their part as well as fingering some of their co-conspirators on how they fixed the gold price for their own benefit. Admission of guilt, especially in important areas that seriously affect others is typically a good thing and helps to correct future behavior for the benefit of all (I hope that does not sound too Communist because that is certainly not where I am coming from). Deutsche Bank owning up to their past transgressions in this case may be akin to a dying man suddenly confessing the error of his ways so as to leave an improved legacy as well as prepare a better path forward in coming spiritual world. Deutcshe Bank, like several big American banks, has a huge derivatives exposure and is like a nuclear bomb whose fuse has been lit and we are just waiting for the explosion. The overleveraged governments may try to save their big banks by printing more money or even nationalizing them but in the end I believe that will be futile. Just like creating more debt is not an answer to an overleveraged indebted government or business, having one extremely overleveraged entity join forces with another extremely overleveraged entity does not really solve anything. It just creates a bigger more concentrated explosion when the two newly joined, deeply in debt entities are vaporized by their mutually constructed debt bomb.

The bigger question as to the gold and silver market manipulation is does this really address the larger issue of government sourced precious metals market shenanigans. The big banks are just the agents of big government and its need to keep the gold price suppressed to support their less than weighty paper fiat currencies. The answer is a definitive no. This particularly applies to the U.S. government and their loyal paper money cohorts, their big money center banks. The U.S. dollar is the basis for the current world economic system so the U.S. government has the most to lose if the price of gold rose to the point that it would become obvious to many of the public that there is serious trouble brewing within this government’s tea kettle.  The U.S. dollar is in serious trouble that there is no escape from. The possibility of serious reform and spending cuts needed to even lessen the impact of the coming economic debacle is non-existent. Especially with this band of lunatics, criminals, and crooks that we have running the U.S. government and its corrupt, rigged economic system. I would expect more downside for the precious metals over the next few months for the reason alone that this band of criminals are not going to just give up and that the dollar still has a ways to go before they devalue it to the point of economic meaninglessness.

Do The U.S. Markets Tell The Real Story?: April 18, 2016

State of the Union and Markets

The U.S. stock market continues to show surprising strength as it grinds higher over the last week.  Momentum is slowing but it has continued to do more than just hold on to gains from its recent strong showing.  This is a good sign for more gains in the future but we are due for a temporary break in the upward trend soon.  Many Marketscope recommendations have done well during this rally but some, like the solars are due for a pullback first before they follow the energy markets up.

Gold and silver have been correcting in time and have lost their upward momentum that gold and to a lesser extent silver exxhibited in the first six weeks of the year.  I still believe gold and silver will roll over in the near future with gold making a move down below $1000.

The crude oïl market has also lost its strong momentum that powered it off its 11 February 2016 low for five plus weeks thereafter.  For the last four weeks we have been in a trading range and digesting its previously, rapidly acquired gains.    I would expect some further price consolidation before the energy market continues its upward rise.

The U.S. stock market advance has been led by energy related and other commodity related stocks including the emerging markets sector.  The fact that the U.S. stock market has continued to grind higher while the oïl market has traded in a range shows you the leverage that energy related stocks have to the price of oïl and that this market is still attracting buyers in what many see as the start of a persistent trend.  If those who think this trend has more room to the upside are wrong then they can always backtrack and get out.  That is also one reason why I think we should see a sharp correction soon in an attempt to scare out the latecomers and those who want to hold on their recent gains without further risk.  Volatility générâtes more fees for the market makers so I would expect some short term volatility soon.

The decline of the U.S. dollar has been the primary reason for oïl and other commodities to rise in price as the latter two are priced in dollars and trade inversely to the direction of the dollar.  I expect the dollar to soon continue its decline after a brief rest in here.  That will continue to push the oïl and commodity complexes upward.  That will also continue to push those sectors of the U.S. stock market higher.

The U.S. dollar closed at 94.55 on Friday.  The appearance of some sense of normalcy in the U.S will probably continue until the dollar falls below its all-time low of 71.05.  So we probably have several months before the SHTF and all hell breaks loose.  Do not get too comfortable in the meantime as increasingly large fissures in the declining system will become more apparent, even for a drugged, indoctrinated, and largely bought off public.  The U.S. dollar is what underpins this corrupt and criminal funny money system so look to it to be your signal that the system is getting closer to collapse mode.

This rigged, economic and political system is steered by the U.S. government and its funny money agents and they want the game to continue for as long as possible.  They are in the positions of power and profit that this system has been purposely designed to create for them at the expense of their controlled and manipulated public.  Both sides know this system is showing serious cracks in its armour.  The ruling elite know when this system does collapse it will bring a lot of unknown and uncertain conséquences that will be harmful to their economic/political positions atop the pyramid as well as very harmful to the public.

TPTB know their funny money will be worth much less in value so they will not be able to buy off the public any longer with their now fully recognizable toilet paper called the U.S. dollar.   The government and its cronies have been preparing for this coming disaster for a very long time without giving the public an inkling of warning of what is to come.  The government will revert to its primary and only weapon left to control the people and that is force.  The U.S. government has been preparing for this by changing the laws such as the “Patriot” Act and NDAA to “legally” allow them to more forcefully control their subjects, euphemistically called citizens.  They have been arming and creating new government agencies to forcefully control their citizens and trying to further indoctrinate them into thinking this is a normal state of being.

The good thing is that this corrupt and criminal edifice of a government along with its fascist economic system is all built upon and relies almost wholly on artificially created money.  When the value of its currency is much less then most of its foot soldiers will no longer be possessors of good paying jobs with nice benefits. They will not be eager to risk life and limb purely for the sake of a cause that obviously has been based on a pack of lies and criminal behavior.  I think you will likely see this monstrosity of a government and economic system largely self-destruct on its own.  This does not mean there will not be much chaos and civil unrest along with the coming economic and political collapse.  An economic and political collapse of these proportions will have very serious conséquences for all caught in its web. Forewarned is forearmed and the government is not taking any steps to inform the public, much less to allow the public to prepare for what is coming.

Appearances Are Deceiving: April 3, 2016

State of the Union:   Things still appear on the surface to be okay economically.  The stock market has been going back up, interest rates are still very low, unemployment is still low according to official statistics,  the official government/mainstream rhetoric is that the economy is still recovering although the government/Fed remain vigilant to protect us from any unforeseen economic weakness, and the U.S. dollar is still the undisputed king despite recent weakness.  But is that all there really is to it.  If you pull back the covers, what do you really see?  About 46 million on food stamps, about 97 million not participating in the labor force with continued announced layoffs of large numbers in various economic sectors, about 18 trillion dollars in accelerating sovereign debt compared to just about 9 million in 2008 with no end in sight, 180 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities (social security and medicare primarily), and a quadrillion or so dollars of derivatives contained in our major money center banks (they are off-balance sheet items so I cannot say they are on the bank’s books)  waiting to blow up.

This does even mention the perpetual warmongering by our government and its Military-Industrial complex that disrupts and largely destroys any semblance of normal life throughout large parts of the globe.  The U.S. government via its long established departments and agencies causes large scale destabilization throughout the world running up huge costs in both the monetary and civil society realms.  The only reason the U.S. people keep believing in this heinous, evil, criminal system is because large numbers in the U.S. still perceive the system as being beneficial to them without caring or looking outside there tunnel vision focus.  Many, if not most, are seeing evidence of the crumbling walls around them but believe if they just keep doing their prescribed part and supporting the system that they will be saved from the worst of it.

Well, if you keep believing in an evil, criminal system and even worst, actively support it, you become part of this heinous system, but you will not be saved from its collapse.  Your leaders have no ability nor no inclination to stop economic debacle that is on the horizon.   The serious corruption of the U.S. government and its economic system began about 100 years ago with the creation of the Federal Reserve central bank.  When you give a government and that country’s major banks a monopoly to create money out of thin air, you have egregiously rigged the balance of power and wealth towards those who hold that monopoly.

This rigged game also quickly becomes a zero sum type game where the relative few who benefit do so at the expense and to the detriment of the population at large.  Without this rigged, zero sum, funny money induced game, the economic pie can keep increasing in accordance with the productive and creative abilities of the general population within reason.   The gatekeepers of this rigged game prohibit any real reformation of this rigged game because they stand to lose too much in the process. This funny money rigged game is highly unstable which is why the big banks have to be in partnership with the government so they can be bailed out when things go wrong, as they often do at the end of these artificially induced money bubbles.

Small and medium sized businesses along with individuals have to pay the price of their very serious economic miscalculations with bankruptcy.   But the favored banks and corporations are saved from that consequence for the good of the country or the system.  This highly unstable system, even with large amounts of inside information, does not do well over time with any reasonable amount of competition so it does what it can to inhibit and even prohibit competition in the economic arena.  But what you end up with is a hollowed out economy that neither provides its citizens with meaningful, productive work nor its long-privileged parasite class with productive areas to further plunder.

This debt/credit based game requires ever more unrealistic growth to keep its house of cards from collapsing.  This system is not based on reality but on benefitting the big bankers and those in government who can extend their power through the creation of money out of thin air.  This all comes at the expense of the citizens which is becoming more and more evident as this system has reduced once vibrant, healthy economies to shambles in many cases or just a feint shadow of its former self in others.  This system focuses on continually funneling money and power to the self-appointed rulers and economic elites while furthering impoverishing and enslaving the citizens in their own lands.

The system also makes damn sure that the people at large are not taught how this purposely designed system really functions and what its real goals and outcomes are.  This system ignores the quality of life aspects for the country or region at large and is focused on increasing the money and power of those at the top of the pyramid – big government, big banks, and big corporations.

The top of the system can be called fascism or corporatism, and in general collectivism embodies all elements that particularly include the general populations and how they are indoctrinated to think about things in general.   But at the bottom is the ability to create money out of thin air.  Without that, everything falls apart.  Because then you do not have the money to buy off the general population, to set up the huge infrastructure that this system needs to perpetuate itself, the huge amounts of money that go to warmongering and related destructive activities, the huge amounts of money that go to government to reward themselves with nice pay, benefits, and to build up their agencies, to the big banks to invest and control industry and the economy at large, to the large favored corporations who recycle some of that money to politicians and government.

When the value of a paper currency loses its value, then much of this edifice built on artificial money goes away.  That is the point we are now reaching with the peak debt situation our country is at.  Some other countries have already realized this as they have constructed an alternative monetary network and platform that completely by passes the U.S. dollar.  This will go into full operation when the dollar loses enough value to make the current system inoperative in conducting normal business and required activities.

Concurrent to this currency collapse event, will be the announcement of the already constructed money replacement system.  I call this money instead of currency because the odds favor that the new system will be backed by gold based on all the gold that China, Russia, and some other countries have been buying over the last several years.  Money is backed by something of real value, currency is something created out of thin air by a cabal of government and bankers, usually to further their aims at the expense of those outside the cabal.  The dollar has been showing continued weakness since 1 Feb 2016 and there is no reason to expect a change in this pattern.  Gear up for stormy weather ahead.

General Markets:

The major market indices continued to power ahead with surprising strength at this stretched juncture in the rally.  Three key major indices did not keep pace with the general market, the Dow Transportation Average, KBW Bank, and PHLX Oil Services indices all lagged this week.  This type of divergence is often seen at intermediate turning points after a relatively long run in one direction or the other.  The 7.5 week U.S. stock market rally has been led by an upsurge in the oil price and the price of U.S. crude oil declining this week does not bode well for the rally continuing without a rest first.  You also like to see major banks participate in any rally which they did not this week.  All things considered, I would expect a rest for a couple of weeks in this area.  We have earnings season getting ready to start which is adding some uncertainty, the share buybacks are temporarily curtailed during earnings season, the tax payment deadline is now upon us, and after a 7.5 week rally we are ripe for a brief respite in further upside stock market action.

I think the most likely course after a brief respite here is continued movement to the upside for the U.S. stock market.  I expect the U.S. dollar to continue declining which will continue to push the oil price higher and with the U.S. stock market now linked to the oil price, it too will continue higher powered by the commodity related stocks.

Precious Metals:  Gold and silver look to be at the turning point that I have been calling for over the last few weeks.  This should be the final push down on the precious metals price indices as the U.S. stock market bull has been going on for seven plus years and has little in the way of real economic fundamentals supporting it.  Commodity prices have started to show strength in 2016 reflecting the weakness of the U.S. dollar but the Powers That Be cannot afford for the gold price to continue higher if they want their rigged game to continue for a while longer.   So it is time for them to pummel the price of gold into submission again via paper contracts on the COMEX and the London markets.  This will continue until the dollar loses enough value to cease functioning as a useable currency.  This will probably happen in combination with the absence of available gold for sale at cheap prices for large buyers.  That is when the precious metals prices will explode to the upside but we are not there yet.   This will mean the government, its currency, and our current economic system has failed us.  It also means the U.S. government or the U.S. in general will no longer be the sole occupier of the catbird’s seat in world economic, political, or military affairs going forward.